Do Gov Contracts Influence Stock Prices?

Weekly Federal Contractor Intelligence Report

Running GovClose and Federalytics over the years has required what some would consider an unhealthy obsession with federal spending data. We even built our own internal tools to develop hyper-focused federal sales plans for companies selling business-to-government (B2G).

Selfishly, I wanted to explore a simple question:

Does sustained federal contracting activity show up anywhere in public markets?

Not in headlines.
Not in day-to-day trading.
But structurally — over time.

The Fed200 is a work in progress with hundreds of variables and dependencies. If you’re interested in following how this develops, I invite you to track it with us this year.

What the Fed200 Is (and Isn’t)

TheFed200 Index tracks 207 publicly traded companies with meaningful federal exposure across four market-cap tiers.

Each week, we look at:

• Historic federal contracting data(FY2022–FY2026)

• Daily contract appearances(with known reporting lag)

• Daily stock prices

• Index-level performance compared to the S&P 500

This is not investment advice and it does not claim causation.
It’s a transparency tool designed to surface patterns — or the absence of them — over time.

Fed200 Index Performance vs. S&P 500

Period analyzed:January 2 → January 9, 2026 (most recent complete week)

Below are the actual index-level results from the Fed200 dashboard:

What this shows (without over-interpreting):

• The Fed200 Composite outperformed the S&P 500 acrossevery timeframe shownthis week.

• Tier 2 led the week(+5.6%), whileTier 4 led the quarter(+15.2%).

• Tier performance varies — which is exactly why the index is segmented this way.

This is the scoreboard. Interpretation comes later.

Winners and Losers by Tier

People intuitively understand winners and losers. This section shows how individual companies performedwithin each tierduring the week.

Returns reflect Jan 02 → Jan 09, 2026. Descriptive only.

Tier 1 (≥ $25B Market Cap)

Top Performers

• Huntington Ingalls (HII):+10.0%

• BAE Systems ADR (BAESY):+9.1%

• CACI International (CACI):+8.6%

Bottom Performers

• CVS Health (CVS):−6.2%

• Boeing (BA):−4.8%

• IBM (IBM):−3.9%

Tier 2 ($1B–$25B Market Cap)

Top Performers

• AeroVironment (AVAV):+36.2%

• Kratos Defense (KTOS):+32.6%

• Elbit Systems (ESLT):+13.2%

Bottom Performers

• Maxar Technologies (MAXR):−9.4%

• SAIC (SAIC):−6.1%

• Leidos Holdings (LDOS):−4.7%

Tier 3 ($100M–$1B Market Cap)

Top Performers

• United Rentals (URI):+11.1%

• Oceaneering International (OII):+10.7%

• Mercury Systems (MRCY):+9.3%

Bottom Performers

• Parsons Corp (PSN):−8.2%

• Cohu (COHU):−6.5%

• Astronics (ATRO):−5.9%

Tier 4 (< $100M Market Cap)

Top Performers

• Rouchon Industries (RCHN):+344.4%

• Track Group (TRCK):+42.7%

• Sonendo (SONX):+31.4%

Bottom Performers

• Guardion Health (GHSI):−22.1%

• Creative Realities (CREX):−18.6%

• Allied Corp (ALID):−15.9%

Note: Tier 4 movements tend to be extreme due to lower liquidity and smaller market capitalization.

Company Highlights

Each week, we’ll highlight one or two companies to show howstock performance and federal contracting activity can coexist— without implying cause, prediction, or recommendation.

Learn Gov Contracting

L3Harris Technologies (LHX)

Stock Performance

• Weekly:+8.2%

• Month-to-Date:+15.2%

• Year-to-Date:+8.2%

Federal Contracting Snapshot

• Contract actions this week:11

• FY2026 obligations (to date):$316.8M

• FY2025 obligations:$6.45B

• FY2024 obligations:$9.15B

CACI International (CACI)

Stock Performance

• Weekly:+8.6%

• Month-to-Date:−2.2%

• Year-to-Date:+8.6%

Federal Contracting Snapshot

• Contract actions this week:8

• FY2026 obligations (to date):$20.8M

• FY2025 obligations:$3.89B

• FY2024 obligations:$4.57B

These highlights are meant toground the index in real data, not to explain short-term market behavior or draw causal conclusions.

What Comes Next

As weekly history builds, we’ll begin testing:

• Whether contract activity shows up withlagged effects

• Whether certain tiers behave differently over time

• Whetherpersistencematters more than growth

If patterns exist, we’ll surface them.
If they don’t, that’s valuable too.

About the Author

Rick Howardis a retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel and former federal acquisitions officer who managed over$82 billionin government contracts during his military career. After retiring from active duty, he foundedGovClose, a government contracting education and certification company focused on helping professionals and businesses understand how federal markets actually work.

Data Quality Statement

While we strive for accuracy, errors may occur in: - UEI-to-ticker mapping - Contract classification - Fiscal year assignment - Stock price data retrieval

Users should verify critical information with primary sources (SAM.gov, SEC filings, company investor relations) before making business or investment decisions.

About GovClose

GovClosespecializes exclusively in government contracting education and market intelligence. Our services include:

Professional Development:- Government contracting certification programs - Federal sales fundamentals training - Compliance and regulatory education - Business development strategy workshops

Market Intelligence:- Weekly federal spending analysis (Federalytics) - Contract award tracking and alerts - Agency procurement pattern analysis - Competitive landscape research

Consulting Services:- Federal business development strategy - Proposal development and review - Contract compliance guidance - GWAC/IDIQ vehicle selection

Why GovClose:Unlike generalist business consulting, GovClose focuses exclusively on the federal market. Our team’s acquisition experience provides practical, operations-based guidance rather than theoretical frameworks.

Learn More:- Website: govclose.com - Newsletter: federalytics.substack.com - YouTube: youtube.com/@dodcontractacademy - Contact: [email protected]

Reader Engagement

Questions About the Fed200?Reply to this email or contact [email protected]. We welcome feedback on methodology, data coverage, and analysis approach.

Data Requests:Interested in specific company deep dives or sector analysis? Let us know which areas you’d like explored in future reports.

Corrections:If you identify data errors or methodology concerns, please notify us. We maintain commitment to accuracy and will issue corrections as needed.

Professional Development:Visit govclose.com to explore government contracting certification programs and access additional federal market resources.

GovClose

Next Week’s Focus:We’ll examine whether January contract activity patterns continue into February, analyze any emerging trends in specific procurement categories, and provide updated stock-contract correlation analysis as our weekly dataset expands.

Subscribe:Ensure you receive next week’s Fed200 report and ongoing federal market intelligence by subscribing to Federalytics.

Data Sources: SAM.gov contract awards database, Yahoo Finance market data, publicly available SEC filings. Analysis conducted by GovClose. Stock prices current as of January 7, 2026 market close. Contract data reflects awards through January 10, 2026 with typical 1-2 month reporting lag from award execution.

The Fed200 Index is a proprietary analytical framework developed by GovClose. Views expressed represent the analysis of Rick Howard and GovClose team and should not be construed as investment recommendations.

Report Published: January 10, 2026 | Inaugural Edition